I Will Remember You
Written by Paul Siluch
March 21st, 2025
Did you know that our music memory peaks at age 14? Between the ages of 12 and 22, we experience some of the most significant moments of our lives. Adolescence, puberty, falling in love, breaking up, graduating – all these events become etched in our minds, cemented by the quick-dry action of hormones like cortisol, adrenaline, dopamine, and serotonin.
Music and Memories
During these formative years, music plays a crucial role. The songs of the day, what our friends were listening to, and what was new and exciting (and not our parents' choice) become fixed in our memories. Psychologists have studied this phenomenon for years, noting that people anchor themselves to the songs of their formative years. Even when great new bands come along later in life, nothing sounds quite as good as the ones from "back in my day."
This phenomenon is known as the reminiscence bump. Music stimulates the amygdala – the emotional centre of the brain – and the hippocampus – where memories are stored. Dancing to music engages our brains even further, forming a powerful remembrance cocktail.
Research Insights
Kelly Jakubowski of Durham University studied a large group of adults and found that the songs that played from ages 12 to 22 have the most impact on our lives.
The peak year is age 14.
Source: Jakubowski et al., 2020/Music & Science (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Try This!
Go to the Billboard top songs for the years you were 12 through 22. If you were 14 in 1972, your peak year, you might find yourself reminiscing with hits from America, The Temptations, or Neil Diamond. For me, it was later in the decade with the Eagles, Boston, and Dire Straits.
Younger generations may remember Madonna (1984) and Sarah McLachlan (who released “I Will Remember You” in 1996) more vividly.
Lists of Billboard number-one singles - Wikipedia
For those who didn't listen to popular songs in their youth, don't fret. People can have a smaller reminiscence bump for the music your parents enjoyed and played when you were young. This is why many adults today enjoy classical and big band music – their parents' favorites – as well as their own. And why many millennials like The Eagles, Boston, and Dire Straits.
Memories in Fearful Times
Memories are also formed during more fearful times, such as stock market declines. Cortisol and adrenaline, the hormones involved in musical memory formation, also flood the brain during times of monetary distress. These ‘fear memories’ become fixed in our minds, making us emphasize the events more than we should.
Market Declines: A Historical Perspective
Here's a look at the frequency of market declines:
- -5%: 91% (~once a year)
- -10%: 55% (~once every two years)
- -15%: 32% (~once every three years)
- -20%: 18% (~once every five years)
(S&P 500 data 1950-2024, Advisorpedia)
The last -20% decline occurred in 2022. Are we due for another? Of course…someday.
However, it's important to remember that the average loss is recovered in less time than we think.
“The average loss during a correction is 13% and, historically, that loss is recovered over a period of about 4 months.“
- Paul La Monica, Barron’s
Since 2010, we've experienced our 30th decline of over 5% (source: Charlie Bilello).
Every decline feels painful at the time, because we remember those few instances when a small drop became a much larger one. We forget that crashes are rare. Thanks to our imprinted memories, they make every small decline feel much bigger than it is.
In Crisis, There Is Opportunity
The threat of U.S. tariffs has led to a sharp decline in growth prospects for Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. itself. Canada was aiming at a 2% rise in its GDP in 2025. It has now been revised down to just 0.7% (source: National Post). Any cessation of the trade war – or a trade deal – would help.
One area of opportunity may lie in real estate. And the things that go into real estate.
Real estate is often a counter-cyclical investment. When the economy slows, interest rates decline. And when rates drop, mortgages become more affordable, and people start buying homes and condos.
Canada’s REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) index has declined sharply since last year. With the economy sputtering and with one interest rate reduction behind us and another likely ahead, it is beginning to show signs of life.
We are seeing value in many of these names, particularly the apartment REITs.
Value in the Forest
Another sector we have added to our list of values to examine is wood. Canadian lumber producers have been decimated by U.S. softwood lumber duties and now, extra tariffs have been piled on.
Interestingly, Canada’s biggest lumber producers have stopped falling. Raymond James’ lumber analyst says Canada’s publicly traded lumber companies, having shifted operations to lower cost mills in the U.S. and reduced B.C. capacity, now paradoxically stand to gain from tariffs because lumber prices have increased.
They have also improved their balance sheets immeasurably over the years, through cost-cutting and mill closures.
The market hasn’t liked lumber stocks for years, but the pessimism seems to indicate that this is a good time to take advantage of the weakness. If they can survive conditions today, they will be in excellent shape when homes start being built in earnest again.
And while Canadian wood sales are down, our special lumber won’t go away. Builders say Canadian softwood has denser tree rings due to its 80-year growth cycle (compared to 35-year U.S. southern pine maturities), making it straighter and stronger. It is also lighter than U.S. softwood, which makes it a premium choice for builders (The Globe & Mail, March 17).
