Written by Paul Siluch
December 13^th, 2024

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

-Vladimir Lenin

It has been a very full couple of weeks in the world:

• After 53 years in power, the Assad dynasty in Syria fell, toppled by rebel forces with support from Turkey. The geopolitical impacts are not known yet, but oil prices rose, as they always do when something explodes in the Middle East. Oil is not a large export for Syria so any ripples in the energy markets are likely to be short-lived. Syria’s main exports are olive oil and nuts, so a regime change won’t affect global trade much at all. However, Russia and Iran stand to lose influence in the region while Turkey gains.

• • The president of South Korea attempted martial law but was stopped by the Korean legislature – a victory for this sometimes-shaky democracy.

• • U.S. employment worsened.

• • Canada cut interest rates by 0.5%, which is well below U.S. rates right now. As a result, the Canadian dollar hit its lowest point against the US dollar since the 2020 pandemic.

Markets continued their uphill march, despite the news.

Written by Paul Siluch
November 22^nd, 2024

Human beings think we are good at predictions, but we bat only about 51% (goodui.org). Our crystal balls and tarot cards are about as good as a coin toss, in other words.

51% was the margin most polls in the recent U.S. election suggested the Democrats would win by, only to be proven wrong. Democrats garnered 48.24% of the popular vote compared to 49.89% for the Republicans (Cook Political Report).

Pollsters spent millions to be right. They were not a good investment this year.

Canadians would have voted 64% for Democrats versus 21% for Republicans, so if you are disappointed in the outcome up here, you are not alone (Global News, Leger survey)

As investors, we can’t really afford to be political. The wind will blow with us in some years and against us in others. The U.S. is a resilient country that has faced this before, and it will survive the turmoil ahead.

Our job is to adapt to the current conditions and invest accordingly.

“Friend or foe, take the dough.”

Written by Paul Siluch
November 6^th, 2024

A Nickel Ain't Worth a Dime Anymore.
- Yogi Berra

The Timelessness of Economic Trends

Every generation thinks it invented sex. That’s what my grandmother said, and she was a wise old girl. If you doubt it, have a look at the frisky mosaics in Pompeii, or the Greek statues from Athens, circa 475 B.C.